NBS reports strongest quarterly GDP growth in recent years
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 4.23 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (Q2’25). This marks one of the most robust quarterly economic performances in recent years, driven largely by significant growth in the industrial sector.
According to the GDP report released by the NBS on Monday, the Q2 growth reflects a 1.1 percentage point increase over the 3.13 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1’25), and a year-on-year improvement from the 3.48 percent posted in Q2’24.
The report attributed the improved growth partly to a revised GDP base year, which now uses 2019 as the benchmark. This rebasing exercise aligns quarterly estimates with the most recent annual national accounts series, offering a more accurate picture of the current structure of the Nigerian economy.
Sectoral performance: Industry leads the way
The NBS report provided a breakdown of the GDP by sector, with the industry sector emerging as the best performer.
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Industry: The sector recorded a 7.45 percent growth in Q2’25, a sharp improvement from the 3.72 percent recorded in Q2’24. This growth was largely driven by increased manufacturing output, mining activities, and improvements in energy infrastructure.
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Agriculture: The sector grew by 2.82 percent, showing moderate but consistent growth compared to the 2.60 percent achieved in the same period last year. Despite challenges such as insecurity and rising input costs, agricultural production continued to support food supply and employment across rural areas.
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Services: The services sector posted a 3.94 percent growth rate, slightly up from 3.83 percent in Q2’24. Key contributors included financial services, telecommunications, and trade, reflecting continued resilience in the non-commodity segments of the economy.
Sector contributions to GDP
In terms of overall contribution to GDP, the non-oil sector continued to dominate, reinforcing Nigeria’s gradual shift away from oil dependence.
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Non-oil sector: Accounted for 95.95 percent of total GDP, highlighting the increasing importance of agriculture, industry (excluding crude petroleum), and services in the country’s economic output.
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Oil sector: Contributed just 4.05 percent, a figure consistent with recent trends. While global oil prices have fluctuated, Nigeria’s oil production challenges—including pipeline vandalism and underinvestment—have limited the sector’s impact on GDP growth.
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Industry sector contribution: The industrial sector’s share of GDP rose to 17.31 percent, up from 16.79 percent in Q2’24. This suggests a growing role for manufacturing, construction, and other industrial activities in driving economic expansion.
Policy implications and economic outlook
The Q2 2025 GDP performance sends a positive signal to both local and international investors, as it suggests momentum in Nigeria’s economic recovery. Analysts believe that with continued structural reforms, investment in infrastructure, and improvements in the business environment, the country could maintain or even exceed this growth rate in the second half of the year.
However, economists also caution that inflation, exchange rate volatility, and debt servicing remain major risks. These challenges could dampen consumer spending and investor confidence if not properly addressed by fiscal and monetary authorities.
Conclusion: A cautiously optimistic outlook
Nigeria’s 4.23 percent GDP growth in Q2 2025 reflects improved macroeconomic management and sectoral performance, particularly in industry and services. While the non-oil economy continues to demonstrate resilience, structural reforms are still essential to ensure long-term, inclusive growth.
As the government looks toward achieving its broader economic development goals, sustaining this momentum will require targeted policies that support job creation, enhance productivity, and reduce dependency on oil revenues.
