Economic expansion slightly surpasses previous year’s performance
The Nigerian economy demonstrated resilience by expanding by 3.98 per cent in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, according to the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.
This figure represents a slight improvement compared to the 3.86 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The data shows a mixed but generally positive recovery across various economic sectors, with the non-oil sectors largely driving the growth momentum.
In real terms, the Aggregate GDP for the quarter stood at ₦57.03 trillion, marking a notable increase from the ₦54.85 trillion recorded in Q3 2024. In nominal terms, reflecting current market prices, the output saw a significant rise of 18.12 per cent year-on-year, reaching ₦113.59 trillion from ₦96.16 trillion in the previous year.
Non-oil sector growth remains the engine of the economy
The non-oil sector proved to be the primary engine of the expansion, growing by 3.91 per cent. This growth rate outperformed both Q3 2024 (3.79 per cent) and the immediately preceding quarter, Q2 2025 (3.64 per cent). The non-oil sector’s sustained positive momentum was largely stabilized by strong gains across diverse areas.
The services sector continues to dominate the overall economy, contributing the largest share of output at 53.02 per cent of real GDP. The agriculture sector followed closely, accounting for 31.21 per cent of the real GDP. Key sectors identified as primary drivers of growth included crop production, telecommunications, real estate, trade, and financial services.
Major sector contributions and performance highlights
The Agriculture sector itself expanded by a solid 3.79 per cent, primarily propelled by strong output in crop production. The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector maintained its robust performance, recording a real growth of 5.78 per cent, with its contribution to GDP rising to 9.10 per cent. This highlights the increasing reliance on the digital economy for national output.
The Financial and Insurance Services sector saw significant growth, expanding in real terms by a substantial 19.63 per cent. Meanwhile, the Trade sector posted a real growth of 1.98 per cent, contributing 16.42 per cent to the total GDP. The Construction sector recorded a real growth of 5.57 per cent, while the Real Estate sector demonstrated a real growth of 3.50 per cent, alongside an impressive 89.34 per cent surge in nominal output.
Mixed results in the oil and manufacturing sectors
The oil sector experienced a modest real growth of 5.84 per cent, which was slightly higher than the 5.66 per cent recorded in Q3 2024. This marginal improvement was attributed to an increase in average crude oil production, which rose to 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.47 mbpd a year earlier. Despite a quarterly contraction of 5.53 per cent, the oil sector’s overall contribution to real GDP increased marginally to 3.44 per cent.
In contrast, the Manufacturing sector experienced a slight deceleration in real growth, slowing to 1.25 per cent from 1.74 per cent in Q2 2025. Consequently, the sector’s contribution to the overall GDP saw a decline to 7.62 per cent. The NBS acknowledged that while most sectors sustained positive momentum, the overall economic growth remains uneven, with some critical industrial areas lagging.
Official benchmarking and international outlook
Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, the Statistician-General of the Federation, affirmed that the quarterly estimates were benchmarked to the rebased national accounts for consistency. He noted that this process reflects ongoing improvements in both data quality and sectoral coverage. The stability of overall output was largely attributed to the strong performances observed in ICT, finance, agriculture, and trade.
The positive report aligns with recent international assessments, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had already revised Nigeria’s 2025 growth outlook upward to 3.9 per cent in October 2025. The IMF cited higher oil production, stronger investor confidence, and a supportive fiscal stance as key drivers for the upgraded projection. The international body also revised its 2024 growth projection to 4.1 per cent and upgraded the 2026 forecast to 4.2 per cent.
