Inflation eases to 18.02% in September 2025
Nigeria’s inflation rate has dropped below 20 percent for the first time in three years, marking a significant milestone in the country’s macroeconomic stability efforts.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the inflation rate eased by 2.1 percentage points, declining to 18.02 percent in September 2025 from 20.12 percent in August 2025.
The September data represents the sixth consecutive month of decline since April 2025, signaling a sustained slowdown in the pace at which consumer prices are rising.
“In September 2025, the Headline inflation rate eased to 18.02 percent relative to the August 2025 headline inflation rate of 20.12 percent,” the NBS report stated.
Year-on-year inflation drops sharply
The statistics agency noted that the headline inflation rate in September 2025 was 14.68 percentage points lower than the 32.7 percent recorded in September 2024. This sharp decline reflects a combination of tighter monetary policies, improved agricultural output, and a stabilization of foreign exchange rates.
“This shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in September 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year,” NBS said in the report.
The report also explained that the CPI figures are calculated with a base year of November 2009 = 100. On a month-on-month basis, inflation in September 2025 was 0.72 percent, slightly lower than 0.74 percent in August.
This means that while prices are still rising, the rate of increase has slowed, giving households and businesses some breathing space after several months of steep price hikes.
Food inflation drops by 5 percentage points
One of the most significant developments in the latest report is the sharp decline in food inflation. The food inflation rate fell by 5 percentage points, dropping from 21.87 percent in August 2025 to 16.87 percent in September 2025.
NBS attributed the decline to a decrease in the average prices of key staples including maize (corn), garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.
“The Food inflation rate in September 2025 was 16.87 percent on a year-on-year basis. This was 20.9 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in September 2024 (37.77 percent),” the report said.
On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate stood at -1.57 percent, down by 3.22 percent compared to 1.65 percent in August 2025. This negative growth indicates that average food prices actually declined compared to the previous month.
Regional variations in food inflation
The NBS report also revealed significant regional differences in food inflation across Nigerian states.
Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Ekiti (28.68%), followed by Rivers (24.18%) and Nasarawa (22.74%). On the other hand, Bauchi (2.81%), Niger (8.38%), and Anambra (8.41%) recorded the slowest increases in food prices.
These variations highlight the different levels of food supply, transportation costs, and security conditions in various parts of the country. States in the northern region, which have experienced improved harvest yields in recent months, recorded lower inflation rates compared to those in the south.
Monetary policies and economic outlook
Economists say the downward trend in inflation may be linked to a combination of policy tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), improved agricultural productivity, and gradual easing of supply chain disruptions.
The CBN has raised interest rates multiple times in 2024 and 2025 to curb inflation, while also intervening in critical sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. These efforts, combined with a relatively stable foreign exchange market in recent months, have contributed to easing price pressures.
However, analysts warn that sustaining the downward trend will require continuous policy consistency, investment in local production, and improvement in security to support food supply chains.
Implications for households and businesses
For Nigerian households, the slowdown in inflation offers some relief from the rising cost of living. Lower food inflation, in particular, could help ease pressure on low-income families who spend a large portion of their income on food.
Businesses may also benefit from greater price stability, which can improve planning, reduce operational costs, and encourage investment. However, economists caution that inflation remains relatively high at 18 percent, and continued reforms are needed to bring it closer to single digits.
