Why high-profile defections to APC may reshape 2027 politics—but not without backlash

With two years to the 2027 presidential election, Nigeria’s political landscape is shifting rapidly as a wave of high-profile defections—primarily from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)—sparks national debate and exposes deep ethnic and security tensions.

Defections deepen as PDP coalition struggles

The formation of a new opposition coalition—led by former PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, Babachir Lawal, and Nasir El-Rufai under the Social Democratic Party (SDP)—has yet to gain serious political traction. So far, no major political figures have joined, while PDP continues to hemorrhage key members. Most notably:

• Ifeanyi Okowa (Atiku’s 2023 running mate)

• Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State

Both have defected to APC, consolidating the ruling party’s control in the South-South, with Delta, Edo, and Cross River now under APC leadership or support, while Akwa Ibom and Rivers governors back President Tinubu. Only Bayelsa remains under PDP.

Analysts cite ethnic insecurity and zoning betrayal

Katchi Ononuju, Director General of the Heritage Centre and former PDP member, argued the coalition’s failure stems from deeper, ethnic-rooted tensions. He said many governors are joining APC not because of strong policy or leadership but because of fears surrounding what he calls the “Fulani war across the Sahel,” which he believes is escalating in Nigeria.

“That security issue—the Fulani war—has birthed itself in Nigeria… Governors are rushing to Tinubu not because they love APC, but because of fear and survival,” he said.

He blames the PDP’s collapse on failure to respect power zoning after eight years of Buhari, a Fulani northerner. The decision to run Atiku again alienated southern stakeholders and drove Obi and Kwankwaso to split off.

Ononuju claimed that, for many in the South, it’s preferable to stick with Tinubu indefinitely than allow another Fulani presidency, warning against what he called “settler colonialism.”

APC sees this as normal democratic movement

Osita Okechukwu, founding APC member and former VON DG, described the defections as “part of democratic dynamics.” He acknowledged the PDP’s zoning failure post-2023 as a key catalyst but argued that the APC has made itself attractive by expanding development initiatives, boosting fiscal autonomy for local councils, and increasing state allocations.

“APC has what will attract people… but that does not mean some people will not leave. It’s the strength of our policies and the people’s alignment with them that matter,” he said.

What lies ahead?

With increasing fragmentation in the opposition and ethnic divisions rising to the forefront, 2027 may not follow conventional party lines. The struggle may shift from party loyalty to ethnic representation, security fears, and grassroots economic control.